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Backing favourites in football - Can you win money?

The short answer is no, but there are ways how to spot a value bet in the favourite vs underdog match

31/05/2020

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There is a difference between backing a favourite team and a clear match. Sometimes, if you understand football, you simply know that there will be no surprise and all points will be taken by the top dog - here the math predictions has not really power and you can place your bet. Other time there might be a strong team (favourite team) playing against a team with unknown potential (but still potential) and this makes you follow the betting crowd.

How to win money at betting on a top dog?

You can bet on the top dog and succeed 5 times in the row thinking this might be the right way to make profit in sports betting. The odds are normally below 1.3 - not rarely below 1.1. Putting this into numbers of a betting chance and probability we get the following results. On the fair odds market the chances of 1.3 odds are 76.9%, but bookies will offer you most likely odds around 1,1 (90,9%). The high chance of winning gives you an illusion of a great betting strategy.

Obviously there is a huge shift in the chances and you are on the wrong end. With the mentioned fair odds chance of 76.9% and bookmakers odds 1.1 you will win bets many times, but by betting you will only win 10p netto. Doing the same bet 10 times, you will statistically lose at least 2 times. So how to win in football betting?

Putting this into a win/loss relationship:

  • Betting 10 matches with the same conditions. 1£ on each match.
  • 8 wins = 8 x 10p = 80p win
  • 2 loses = 2 x 1£ = 2£ loss
  • In summary you have with the optimistic scenario only 2£ - 80p = 1.2£ loss

This is a trap and if you keep on trying to make money by betting on favourites or top dogs, you will not be profitable in the long term. You have to choose a different soccer betting strategy.

What else is not working by betting on the top dog?

Let's say you are expecting a surprise. Sure it happens, but mostly the surprise is a draw and bookies know that. If you are searching for paid value bets, you will not find them in a draw either. Option might be double chance value bet, but in this case it is most likely not available or the odds are way too low. The value is usually pushed all the way to the win of an underdog, but this is not really the way either since the chances of success are normally below 10%. What is the moral coming out of this?

What is working by betting on the top dog?

Search for the value by number of goals market. Punters usually expect besides the win of the top dog a clear win of the top dog and this may not be the case. Many times the favourite team struggles to score a goal. How come? Since the under dog expects the big pressure, their strategy will be defense.

With the crowds betting big on a high win of the top team, the odds might be pushed to your favour. Simply put: Check all the betting values with our paid betting tips and make sure to take your time. Betting on football predictions for tomorrow without looking deeply on each fixture is not a great option. You never know, but there might be some key player suffering some minor injury.