Fixture Everton vs Manchster United is a very tough one to seek the value. We see Everton as a tough opponent even for the strong teams with a high scoring potential with an average 2.5 scored goals per game in the last 4 [league 8] games.
On the other hand, after the possible Manchester City punishment we see Red Devils back in the fight for the European cup leagues. With the last great results when beating Watford 3:0 and winning over Chelsea 2:0 in London we might speculate about the increased form of Red Devils.
The first value I was seeking was in the “both teams to score market“. With Rowdie’s best mathematical football predictions as high as 45.33% (decimal odds 2.21) we see a disappointment, since bookies offer odds only 1.8 (55% chance).
The bookmakers payout around 94%, we see the math is here completely different and to be honest 1.8 seems to me more valid.
Let us look at the 3 way result (1X2). From my guts feeling, the draw seems to be the result with the highest chance, but bookies expected that giving odds only 3.2 (31%) – compared to our 3.66 (27%) prediction. A value is to be found in the Home win. Our mathematical prediction says 2.21 (44%). This bookmakers compared – offering 2.5 (40%) gives us 13.1% value.
Will you go for this value?
