Rowdie: Mathematical football predictions and betting tips
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Lower odds = Higher value

Feelings can lie but numbers help to reveal the truth. We have created this article as a guideline for spotting the value when comparing the bookmakers odds with your football betting predictions or self created odds

28/02/2020

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We have created this article as a guideline for spotting the value when comparing the bookmakers odds with your football betting predictions or self created odds.

The title is a little tricky but let me explain. Let's say you found a value by 3 different markets. For results we used our expected value bet calculator. In each of the cases there is the same tiny difference between yours and bookmakers odds. Only 0.1 as an absolute number but let's look at the relative results.

  1. Bookmaker odds 1.40 vs your calculated odds 1.30
  2. Bookmaker odds 2.40 vs your calculated odds 2.30
  3. Bookmaker odds 7.40 vs your calculated odds 7.30

In the first case we see a punters paradise. With value as high as 7.7% there is 76,9% chance of success.

In the second case the odds are giving value 4.3% - which is still fine. The chance to succeed with this pick is however only 43.4% - which is still fine.

Looking at the third case, the value is only 1.3% and change of winning is only 13.7%.

My personal limit is decimal odds lower than 7.00 and calculated betting value higher than 4%. This is just a hint,  you can set your own limits.