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Probability in sports betting

Probability in sports betting easy explained. Probability in sports betting is a must to understand for you to become a successful punter

23/09/2019

We take a simple example - a coin toss. It is really crucial for you to understand my point with the coin toss for the whole sports betting success! As we all know, there is a 50% chance to land heads and 50% to land tails. It is simply a fact.

But in sports betting it is not so easy. We have asked 2 mathematicians to come up with probability predictions for a match. We provided them all the data necessary for sports betting they asked for and the prediction from each mathematician was very different.

Now we a game for you. Try to guess the probability described in the following video. Please take 30 seconds to watch and then another 30 seconds for thinking. If you get the point, you won't regret it. We promise.

Now back to the probability of a given match. How can you say for sure that when Chelsea played Arsenal, the chances were as follows?

  • Chelsea win - odds 2.2 (45.5%)
  • Draw - odds 3.70 (27%)
  • Arsenal win - odds 3.2 (31.2%)

Please take a minute and meditate on this. Really! Why not 40% for Chelsea win, 35% for a draw and 20% for Arsenal win? Why not only 35% for Chelsea win? The small shift in probability will cause a significant impact on wether you are losing or winning.

The above odds come from a bookie and are the result of a really complicated and complex statistical football prediction model. The model has been verified and retrospectively checked many times but I can give you one guarantee. There is no guarantee that the probability calculated by the bookmaker is correct!

Please remember the highlighted sentence, since it is our betting bible or a core starting point. So once again from a different angle:

The probability calculated and given by the bookmaker is in many cases not correct and creates a space for a value bet!

Knowing this, it is obvious that there is a chance for us. What if we can do it better? Even the most difficult and most sophisticated statistical model is just an opinion. The real probability can never be calculated correctly. This is not a coin toss.

The limited way to calculate the 100% accurate probability is not the only problem of the bookies. If you look at how bookies make the money, you will find out that they are trying to spread the deposits in an optimal ratio to make the most out of it. Our investigation shows that from all football predictions sites is Rowdie performing within the top 3.

Example: Let's say the bookmakers would calculate the Chance of Chelsea winning was 50% (0.5) - which comes to odds 2.00. If the majority of punters keep betting on Chelsea. That would push the odds on Chelsea win down, and very likely the odds for a draw and Arsenal win higher. This would be the chance to spot the value bets in football.

You can make use of the theory of probability

  • The probability of a match result can almost never be calculated correctly. If you have a deeper knowledge of the team and league, you can do it better than the bookie.
  • The odds are being pushed up and down depending on the behavior of the majority of punters.

How can we calculate the sports betting probability better?

Many bookies are outsourcing the odds from companies like Betradar. In my experience most of the bookmaker's employees have actually no deeper idea about the sports betting probability and math beyond sports betting. Very important thing is to know more than the one who creates the odds. You can indeed look at the statistics and create a betting model for creating the football odds - and this would indeed be a good way to do it. With experience however you can confront the model results with your critical opinion. The betting model by the odds creators gets reviewed after each and you should do it too.

If you think you have a deep knowledge of the team and league, feel free to use our betting model to convert the knowledge into the odds and find some decent football predictions tonight. We are guiding you step by step.