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What are the best football leagues for betting?

The list of football leagues showing the best results when it comes to win in sports betting

18/06/2020

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Our mathematical football predictions are not perfect through the whole portfolio of all World's football leagues and we are not going to lie about it. Below you can see the list of leagues with high league predictability and from my experience this means more than 12% in revenue*.

Betting on the football leagues with a high and good predictability gives you a chance of much better betting results. Leagues with medium predictability consider just like a hint and do NOT go for values under 10%. Simply compare the odds with those of your licensed online bookmakers and bet on those where the odds of the bookie are higher. The columns Predictability and Predictive Power are easy to understand expressions of Hit Ratio and Log Loss, since the last 2 are for the math gurus only.

League Country Predictability Pred. Power Hit Ratio Log Loss
Algeria Youth League Algeria high up 0.53 -0.9644
Ligue 2 Algeria high down 0.62 -0.9490
First League Armenia high unchanged 0.53 -0.9294
Division de Honor Aruba high unchanged 0.65 -0.9073
Brisbane Premier League Australia high unchanged 0.59 -0.9064
Capital Territory Australia high unchanged 0.61 -0.9356
Northern Nsw Australia high up 0.61 -0.9274
Npl Queensland Australia high unchanged 0.58 -0.9242
Npl Tasmania Australia high unchanged 0.72 -0.8034
Victoria NPL Youth League Australia high unchanged 0.54 -0.9590
W-League Australia high unchanged 0.60 -0.9332
Second Division Belarus high unchanged 0.69 -0.7800
1st National Women Belgium high unchanged 0.63 -0.9197
Super League Women Belgium high unchanged 0.63 -0.8629
Premier Liga Bosnia and Herzegovina high unchanged 0.57 -0.9393
Brasileiro Women Brazil high unchanged 0.66 -0.8082
Brasiliense Brazil high unchanged 0.62 -0.9369
Carioca 1 Brazil high up 0.57 -0.9648
Carioca U20 Brazil high unchanged 0.61 -0.9498
Mineiro 1 Brazil high down 0.57 -0.9373
Paraense Brazil high unchanged 0.63 -0.9308
Paraibano Brazil high unchanged 0.57 -0.9249
Paranaense 1 Brazil high down 0.55 -0.9571
Vtora Liga Bulgaria high unchanged 0.56 -0.9740
C-League Cambodia high down 0.68 -0.8640
Taiwan Football Premier League Chinese Taipei high unchanged 0.65 -0.9045
1. HNL Croatia high unchanged 0.53 -0.9630
3. HNL - East Croatia high up 0.56 -0.9204
2. Liga FNL Czech Republic high down 0.54 -0.9774
3. Liga CFL Czech Republic high up 0.58 -0.9203
4. Liga Division A Czech Republic high unchanged 0.59 -0.9390
4. Liga Division B Czech Republic high up 0.52 -0.9724
4. Liga Division C Czech Republic high unchanged 0.59 -0.9478
Fortuna Liga Czech Republic high unchanged 0.61 -0.9108
U19 League Czech Republic high unchanged 0.62 -0.8888
Elitedivisionen Women Denmark high unchanged 0.62 -0.8710
Liga Pro Ecuador high unchanged 0.58 -0.9462
Premier League Egypt high unchanged 0.53 -0.9634
Non League Div One: Isthmian South England high down 0.55 -0.9780
Non League Div One: Northern South England high up 0.56 -0.9315
Non League Premier: Isthmian England high unchanged 0.55 -0.9779
Premier League 2 Divison Two England high down 0.52 -0.9750
Wsl 1 Women England high unchanged 0.69 -0.8484
Wsl 2 Women England high unchanged 0.63 -0.8647
Esiliiga Estonia high unchanged 0.58 -0.9579
Meistriliiga Estonia high up 0.62 -0.8707
1. Deild Faroe Islands high up 0.57 -0.8980
Meistaradeildin Faroe Islands high up 0.67 -0.7410
Kakkonen Finland high down 0.54 -0.9750
Veikkausliiga Finland high unchanged 0.52 -0.9732
Ykkonen Finland high unchanged 0.58 -0.9483
Division 1 Women France high up 0.66 -0.8132
Bundesliga Germany high unchanged 0.60 -0.9658
Junioren Bundesliga Germany high down 0.56 -0.9629
Oberliga: Bremen Germany high up 0.57 -0.9443
Oberliga: Hamburg Germany high unchanged 0.57 -0.9345
Oberliga: Niederrhein Germany high unchanged 0.58 -0.9419
Oberliga: Schleswig-Holstein Germany high unchanged 0.57 -0.9615
Oberliga: Westfalen Germany high unchanged 0.59 -0.9432
Gamma Ethniki Group 1 Greece high unchanged 0.56 -0.9789
Gamma Ethniki Group 2 Greece high up 0.57 -0.9354
Ligue Haïtienne Haiti high unchanged 0.54 -0.9649
NB 3: Nyugati Hungary high down 0.55 -0.9790
2. Deild Iceland high unchanged 0.59 -0.9717
Azadegan League Iran high unchanged 0.54 -0.9751
Serie A Italy high unchanged 0.58 -0.9644
Serie A Women Italy high unchanged 0.70 -0.7619
Serie D: Girone I Italy high unchanged 0.59 -0.9504
J-League Japan high unchanged 0.65 -0.9400
First Division Kazakhstan high down 0.52 -0.9748
Super League Kenya high unchanged 0.59 -0.9550
Superliga Kosovo high unchanged 0.57 -0.9024
Premier League Kuwait high unchanged 0.58 -0.9445
Virsliga Latvia high up 0.57 -0.9307
1. Lyga Lithuania high down 0.58 -0.9282
A Lyga Lithuania high unchanged 0.59 -0.9092
Second League Macedonia FYR high unchanged 0.57 -0.9436
Super League Malaysia high unchanged 0.60 -0.9576
Liga MX Mexico high unchanged 0.56 -0.9728
Liga Mx Women Mexico high down 0.60 -0.8998
Division A Moldova high unchanged 0.54 -0.9612
National Division Moldova high up 0.62 -0.8612
Eerste Divisie Netherlands high unchanged 0.59 -0.9425
Eredivisie Women Netherlands high unchanged 0.60 -0.8896
Npfl Nigeria high up 0.66 -0.8806
Premiership Northern Ireland high up 0.59 -0.9218
Premiership Development League Northern Ireland high unchanged 0.70 -0.7426
2. Division Norway high down 0.59 -0.9340
Eliteserien Norway high unchanged 0.56 -0.9672
West Bank League Palestine high up 0.55 -0.9770
Segunda Division Peru high unchanged 0.62 -0.8797
Ekstraliga Women Poland high up 0.61 -0.8471
Primeira Liga Portugal high unchanged 0.55 -0.9742
First Division Republic of Ireland high unchanged 0.56 -0.9616
Pfl Russia high down 0.58 -0.9443
Youth League Russia high unchanged 0.63 -0.9083
Football League Scotland high up 0.65 -0.8454
League Two Scotland high unchanged 0.58 -0.9270
Premiership Scotland high up 0.55 -0.9440
Srpska Liga - East Serbia high unchanged 0.57 -0.9446
Srpska Liga - Vojvodina Serbia high unchanged 0.51 -0.9786
Super Liga Serbia high unchanged 0.55 -0.9367
S. League Singapore high unchanged 0.56 -0.9775
2. Liga Slovakia high unchanged 0.57 -0.9220
3. Liga - Center Slovakia high down 0.58 -0.9260
3. Liga - East Slovakia high unchanged 0.64 -0.8456
3. Liga - West Slovakia high unchanged 0.53 -0.9753
Primera Division Women Spain high unchanged 0.56 -0.9462
Spain Youth League Spain high unchanged 0.59 -0.9074
Tercera - Group 10 Spain high up 0.54 -0.9699
Tercera - Group 16 Spain high unchanged 0.56 -0.9640
Tercera - Group 5 Spain high up 0.53 -0.9760
Topklasse Suriname high unchanged 0.58 -0.9473
Allsvenskan Women Sweden high unchanged 0.60 -0.9343
Division 2: Norra Svealand Sweden high unchanged 0.54 -0.9379
Division 2: Norrland Sweden high unchanged 0.58 -0.9413
Ettan: North Sweden high unchanged 0.56 -0.9648
1.Liga Classic Switzerland high up 0.55 -0.9719
Premier League Syria high unchanged 0.58 -0.9265
2. Lig: Beyaz Turkey high unchanged 0.59 -0.9141
Youth League Ukraine high unchanged 0.56 -0.9129
Uae League United Arab Emirates high unchanged 0.58 -0.9620
Professional Football League Uzbekistan high unchanged 0.55 -0.9763
CAF Champions League World high unchanged 0.58 -0.9525

Now the list of league where we are doing good

As the name "good" suggests, the results are slightly worse than great, but still acceptable.

League Country Predictability Pred. Power Hit Ratio Log Loss
Superliga Albania good up 0.54 -0.9941
Regionalliga: Mitte Austria good unchanged 0.55 -0.9993
Regionalliga: West Austria good unchanged 0.54 -0.9971
Premier League Bahrain good up 0.59 -0.9896
Premier League Barbados good unchanged 0.53 -1.0058
Pershaya Liga Belarus good down 0.49 -1.0135
Vysshaya Liga Belarus good unchanged 0.55 -1.0000
Pro League Belgium good unchanged 0.49 -1.0174
Liga De Futbol Prof Bolivia good up 0.60 -0.9912
Goiano 1 Brazil good unchanged 0.51 -1.0070
Pernambucano 1 Brazil good up 0.50 -1.0104
Serie C Brazil good up 0.51 -1.0150
3. League Southeast Bulgaria good unchanged 0.54 -0.9846
3. League Southwest Bulgaria good down 0.51 -0.9937
Super League China PR good unchanged 0.50 -1.0115
3. HNL - West Croatia good unchanged 0.53 -0.9919
1. Division Cyprus good up 0.52 -0.9884
4. Liga Division E Czech Republic good up 0.54 -1.0075
Youth League Czech Republic good down 0.51 -1.0118
2. Division - Play-offs Denmark good unchanged 0.58 -0.9885
2. Division Group 2 Denmark good unchanged 0.56 -1.0188
Denmark Series Group 4 Denmark good unchanged 0.53 -1.0020
First Division Denmark good up 0.55 -1.0079
Non League Div One: Northern North England good unchanged 0.49 -1.0040
Ligue 1 France good unchanged 0.54 -0.9858
Oberliga: Baden-Wurttemberg Germany good unchanged 0.54 -0.9995
Oberliga: Bayern Süd Germany good unchanged 0.48 -1.0169
Oberliga: Mittelrhein Germany good unchanged 0.54 -0.9882
Oberliga: Nordost-Süd Germany good unchanged 0.51 -0.9952
Oberliga: Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar Germany good up 0.51 -1.0114
Regionalliga: Nord Germany good down 0.48 -1.0158
Regionalliga: Nordost Germany good unchanged 0.52 -1.0065
Gamma Ethniki Group 3 Greece good unchanged 0.53 -1.0171
Gamma Ethniki Group 5 Greece good unchanged 0.58 -0.9842
Gamma Ethniki Group 7 Greece good unchanged 0.51 -1.0020
Super League Greece good unchanged 0.42 -1.0080
OTP Bank Liga Hungary good unchanged 0.53 -1.0130
Lig Bet Israel good up 0.52 -1.0105
Ligat ha'Al Israel good unchanged 0.52 -0.9889
Serie D: Girone H Italy good unchanged 0.55 -0.9941
Premier League Jordan good down 0.50 -0.9967
Premier League Kazakhstan good unchanged 0.54 -0.9912
National League Korea Republic good unchanged 0.49 -1.0139
First Liga Latvia good unchanged 0.49 -1.0001
National Division Luxembourg good unchanged 0.55 -0.9933
Second League Montenegro good unchanged 0.53 -1.0151
Botola Pro Morocco good unchanged 0.55 -0.9928
Eredivisie Netherlands good down 0.51 -0.9880
Premiership New Zealand good unchanged 0.52 -0.9994
Championship Northern Ireland good unchanged 0.59 -0.9956
3. Division Norway good unchanged 0.49 -1.0159
Obos-Ligaen Norway good unchanged 0.52 -0.9954
Premier Division Republic of Ireland good down 0.49 -0.9942
FNL Russia good up 0.53 -0.9812
Pro League Saudi Arabia good unchanged 0.46 -1.0115
League One Scotland good up 0.54 -1.0132
Srpska Liga - West Serbia good up 0.49 -0.9858
3. Liga - Bratislava Slovakia good unchanged 0.51 -1.0154
Fortuna Liga Slovakia good unchanged 0.50 -0.9929
Youth League Slovakia good up 0.52 -0.9958
1. SNL Slovenia good down 0.49 -1.0185
2. SNL Slovenia good up 0.52 -1.0179
Segunda Division Women Spain good unchanged 0.53 -1.0098
Tercera - Group 14 Spain good unchanged 0.50 -1.0108
Tercera - Group 3 Spain good up 0.56 -0.9911
Division 2: Sodra Svealand Sweden good unchanged 0.50 -1.0071
Division 2: Vastra Gotaland Sweden good unchanged 0.53 -1.0093
Ettan: South Sweden good up 0.57 -0.9840
1. Lig Turkey good unchanged 0.53 -0.9922
2. Lig: Kirmizi Turkey good unchanged 0.48 -0.9844
Major League Soccer USA good down 0.56 -0.9907
V-League 2 Vietnam good unchanged 0.53 -1.0050
Premier League Wales good unchanged 0.48 -1.0193
Friendly International World good unchanged 0.42 -1.0141

*There is still a risk of losing your stakes. Betting is about probabilities and must not be considered investment. I have seen leagues going down from high to poor many times.