Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Atalanta could be one of the dark horses in next season’s Champions League

In life and football, everyone loves an underdog story and there are few better feelings than seeing an underdog finally get a deserving win. 

That feeling was shared by many football enthusiasts on 22 May 2024 when Atalanta, in their first European final, defeated Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in the UEFA Europa League final.

That their opponents were reigning Bundesliga Champions made this the greatest night in the club’s history as it turned out to be Leverkusen’s only defeat in an incredible 53-match campaign.

Fittingly, there was a clear hero of the night in Ademola Lookman who bagged a first hat-trick in undoubtedly the biggest match of his storied career. 

The 26-year-old provided a finishing masterclass as he displayed his multifaceted attacking qualities. The first was a lethal finish at the far post, followed by a neat curling effort before the break, however, the third was the best goal of the lot as Lookman cut onto his left foot before unleashing an unstoppable strike into the top corner. 

Lookman has taken a long and hard journey to the top with several rejections at academy level before he endured spells in England and Germany then finally found a home in Bergamo. 

The star forward is a true emblem of this club’s rise as they claimed their first trophy since 1963. To commemorate the achievement, the Municipality of Bergamo has decided to honour Atalanta with the city’s gold medal. Atalanta tickets will easily see more demand in the coming months as well.

Indeed, this Europa League triumph holds more significance on the continent as they will now compete in 2024/25 season’s Champions League. Atalanta are back after a two-year absence from Europe’s premier cup competition and they are better equipped to challenge next term.

UCL Underdogs?

Gian Piero Gasperini‘s side produced a masterful display in the Europa League final and after three consecutive seasons in the UCL between 2019-2021, they will compete in the Champions League for only the fourth time in the club’s history.

They will be welcomed back into a new format as the Champions League is set to be expanded from 32 to 36 teams in the 2024/25 season. Under a new league-style competition, every team will play four clubs over eight matchdays to determine the league table.

The top eight will qualify for the Round of 16, with teams placed ninth to 24th going against each other in a playoff round.

Having more matches undoubtedly favours the modest clubs, as they have more opportunities to advance into the latter stages of this competition and possibly take out some of Europe’s elite.

It is pertinent to also consider Atalanta’s record in the UCL as their debut campaign led to a fascinating run to the quarter-final in 2019/20, despite losing their first three group stage matches.

As Gasperini begins his ninth season at the helm, they will be assured of their readiness to stun the top tier of European football.

The 66-year-old tactician has transformed Atalanta from a club to avoid relegation into a team competing with Serie A’s best and constantly participating in European competitions.

Known for using a fluid 3–4–3 formation with a hyper-offensive, possession-based system which relies on the versatility of his midfielders and front line, La Dea has become one of the most entertaining teams in Europe.

Off the ball, they are notorious for the heavy pressing and fluid man-marking across the entire pitch to disrupt opponents.

It is a style of play that excites and captures the attention of neutrals. 

In the Covid-19 affected 2019/20 season, Atalanta was the first Italian club to have three players (Luis Muriel, Duvan Zapata and Josip Ilicic) score at least 15 league goals since Juventus in 1951–52 as they finished the season with a record-breaking 98 goals in Serie A.

That was the same year they took the UCL by storm, and recent experiences will have made them hungry for more. 

A young and vibrant AS Monaco team famously reached the UCL semi-finals in 2016/17 after knocking out Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund, while others like Ajax, AS Roma, Villarreal and Borussia Dortmund have had memorable campaigns against all odds since then.

Atalanta got the better of Sporting Lisbon, Liverpool, Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen to win the Europa League. They weren’t favourites in any of their knockout games yet they won each round convincingly. 

They must retain that ability to overperform and shatter glass ceilings as it resonates with the qualities of previous UCL dark horses.

If they can keep their best players, there is no doubting Atalanta’s ability to cause an upset or two, but that is easier said than done given the likes of Teun Koopmeiners, Ademola Lookman and Giorgio Scalvini among others are already courting interest from other clubs.

Meanwhile, they have never lacked quality as Atalanta can call upon a famed youth academy, Scuola di Calcio, which has produced several notable talents in the top leagues across Europe.

For a club that holds the record for most promotions to the Serie A and the joint-most Serie B titles, alongside Genoa. La Dea have been around and earned their rightful place at the top echelons of European football despite their modest background.

Now, they are a well-run sporting establishment and one of only four Serie A clubs to own its home stadium. This has allowed Atalanta to undertake a renovation project for the stadium which needed an upgrade as with many Italian stadiums.

The renovation project was also necessary to upgrade the stadium to meet UEFA standards for hosting matches and they had to play their first Europa League and Champions League home matches at the Mapei Stadium and San Siro respectively.

Indeed, the renovation and modernisation of both Curva Nud and Curva Sud stands at the Gewiss Stadium allowed Atalanta to play their first Champions League matches in Bergamo during the 2020–21 season.

The final phase of the renovation project will feature a rebuilt Curva Sud mirroring the rebuilt Curva Nord and increase the stadium’s capacity to about 25,000, as well as the construction of a new underground parking garage and other improvements to the stadium’s surroundings. All of these are expected to be completed by August 2024 before the start of the UCL campaign.

Atalanta would be feeling better about themselves in Europe next season, they have a chance to build on that Europa League title with another deep run into the Champions League. Europe beware.

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