There is a danger you carry within you – it is your head to be precise. Our craving for satisfaction is the biggest danger when it comes to sports betting or any other kind of gambling. Today we look at the dangers of risk together with non Gamstop betting sites who analysed this topic in detail.

…and this does not apply to gambling only. If you want to find success in sports betting, here are a few psychological goals you must follow, but let’s start with something surprising.

Of course, we all want to be happy! But did you know that feeling of being happy and satisfied tends you to accept higher risks? Yes, it’s a scientifically proven fact. A little bit of stress and tension is and the hit of dopamine is what the gamblers seek and winning gives you more of that increasing the danger. Winning will make you less cautious about your bets and increase the risk of rash decisions. What is the solution? Keep your happiness in check when you enter a gambling zone.

Blinking loss

Did you ever realize that you get something that looks like a reward even if you lose? Many slot machine games start making sounds and flash even if you are losing. This way the player loses, but still might get confused about what really happened. UKGC has been fighting this for several years and 2022 is set to be an end to the “blinking loss”.

Preconceived bias

This is a problem many football gamblers face. If you have a preconceived notion about any team or a match in general, you may ignore real evidence. While placing bets, you must be critical. It will help you to make the right analysis.
One of the most common things is to place a bet on the favourite team. Of course, you love them but that doesn’t guarantee their wins every time.

Instead, pay attention to gaming strategies, players, etc. to make an informed decision. Here is an example of what may go wrong during the match.

“Team A has experienced players and they are playing really well this season. But team B is my favourite team and they have won quite a few times before. Let me place a bet on team B”

This is where you may lose the game. It’s important to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of each of the teams. Then you can take a radical decision.

Adopt an agile approach

A cool head with logical questions makes you a successful gambler. So far we have discussed the flaws you should overcome. Now, it’s time to analyse your right approach.

It’s important to adopt a dejected and approved approach. Not sure what we are talking about? The following section will clarify your doubts.

Follow a logical thought process:

“Team A is full of experienced and celebrity players and team B has new and experimental ones. Though they both have a good chance to win, A may win over B due as they are more experienced. So I will bet on them”

This is a logical approach that takes the advantages and disadvantages of each team into account. Naturally, you will get a comprehensive overview and accumulate your thought process. This is the best strategy to adopt.

Way forward

We agree that a fair share of luck is involved in gambling. No matter how much you reason yourself and calculate the right move, you cannot control what’s happening right there on the field. But following the above-mentioned steps will help you to win even a few matches! That’s not bad, right? Don’t forget to share the article with your acquaintances if you find it useful. Good luck with your next game.

We are good at math and our paid picks are doing great. To see the full list of value bets and mathematical football picks please login or create a Rowdie account and prepay the access to premium membership for only €19.99 per month. There are some leagues where we are doing great and there are leagues where we are… let’s say average. Only a handful leagues show really poor performance and that means we had to take a closer look. Please stay calm as we only show values in leagues and markets with a high predictability.

The benchmark

We are doing our best to bring the best results with our mathematical football predictions and we are proud to present our results. There is however one league that stands out. The group of friendly games in football where the math is simply not working.

We have been working hard over 2 years to fix that, but it is not possible. Friendly games have their own rules and their own math – a math without real mathematical laws. We have noticed so many crazy results and unexpected surprises that we ha to analyze the topic more deeply.

What is the reason for friendly games showing so many unexpected results?

There are more reasons and we have singled out the following main ones

Testing of new line-ups

What is a better place for testing new players, positions and strategies if not a friendly game? The results are simply irrelevant and coaches are taking the opportunity. Key players are not playing or are playing on a different spots – spots that are not natural to them. Key players are replaced by bench players and newbies, and this is all fine. This reason alone is good enough to screw up the football prediction math. There are 2 factors:

• different lineups bring unexpected results
• performance

Poor performance of the key players

Why should we expect a key player who earns millions to bring 100% performance during a friendly match? Every game holds a risk of a injury and the club officials together with the player know it. Can you imagine the headlines saying “Ronaldo injured in a friendly match”? This would jeopardize some positions.

Match fixing

You will most likely not find any signs of match fixing in the top European leagues. For that you have to go to lower leagues (maybe outside of Europe) and indeed friendly games. The reason for match fixing in friendly games is not so surprising. It is money. While the top leagues treat millions like peanuts, the poorer ones struggle to feed their families.

We can put it into numbers so fasten your seatbelts. 630 football players were chosen from different parts of Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece. All of them were active or former players and 25.9% claimed that they were a part of match fixing activities in more than 2 football fixtures.

Who was the master brain? It was discovered that some club officials like coaches and managers had a significant role to play in manipulating the football results in friendly games. Not surprisingly 18.7% of such approaches were made by the officials alone while only 14.93% of the approaches came from players participating in the fixtures. It was also revealed that the club officials had a lot to gain. Yes, the coaches, managers and other club officials were those benefitting from match fixing the most.

For those who are good at betting might be beneficial knowing even the poor predictions. Maybe to bet against them so we will come back to this. This article is about to be updated.

Do you want to do betting for living? Many of us do! Do you do what it takes to do betting for living? I doubt it! …but let me set the benchmark. Do you know how much time do the professionals that create the odds work? On average it is 8 hours per person and day. Do you know how many of those professionals are by Betradar and other companies? Dozens, even hundreds. Now imagine. You have an army of highly skilled professionals working against you and the only thing you do when placing a bet is claim that you feel it in your bones. There are also other distortions, such as taking the shortcuts like fixed match information and other scams.

Q: And this is when Rowdie comes into the scene, right?

A: Kind of. The mathematical football predictions from Rowdie are operated by the most sophisticated self learning algorithms, but using it brainless will not get you the results you want.

Q: Why is that? You claim, that the predictions are retrospectively verified and you only display those with a high or good predictability.

A: Of course, but even at Betradar or other odds creators companies, there are people checking the results. Besides that, the odds are changing a few times per day. A week before the match might be the squad different than a few minutes before the match. Especially now, during the Covid period we see that the line ups are changing more frequently than before Covid. Lately I was waiting for UK football predictions for this week. I was used to see the odds earlier than 3 days before the game, but this time bookmakers had to wait for the WM qualifications to be finished. Was it because of waiting if any key player ends up Covid positive? I guess so, but sure I am not.

Q: Is the possible line up change the only reason for checking Rowdie’s mathematical football predictions?

A: It might be the main reason, but it is not the only one. I personally go through each predicted value bet, check the stats, and select only about 20%. Those 20% are the fixtures where the value is really obvious. While all the super real football pics give on average around 10%, selecting the cream of the cream gives a much higher value – up to 40%.

Q: Ok, but how much time do you spend analyzing one fixture.

A: It depends. Sometimes it takes seconds by saying “I don’t think this one should be on the list”, but when a fixture passes the initial filter it is no less than 15 minutes. And now we are getting to the point of this article, Betting is work and this work is not easy. It may not be a dirty job, it may not be a tough physical job but if you are not a born (or made) to love numbers, you will find it the hardest job in the world.

Q: I am not getting your point

A: Imagine spending hours, sitting and looking at numbers. Fixture by fixture. First the League, then the teams, then players. Imagine doing this for weeks, months or even years. You have to love it to be able to deal with it and if you so not love numbers my advice is do betting only as a hobby. What does it mean? Hobby costs money and therefore accept that you will not beat the bookies. How to beat the bookies? Betting is work and if you slack it, then you will be “fired”.

Q: Ok. I go through the football predictions and select the ones I believe in. Is there anything else I should do?

A: Sure. Do the predictions on your own. After selecting the fixture, try to forget the numbers, open statistics and do the same job like our algorithm. We have a great tool that helps you with the final calculation. You only feed it with ” numbers. Creating odds on your own gives you a great feeling of what is going on.

Q: How much is it?

A: To see the full list of value bets and mathematical football picks please login or create a Rowdie account and prepay the access to premium membership for only €19.99 per month.

Q: Any final Advice?

A: Indeed. Be skeptical! Don’t ever fall into the trap thinking that you are a good punter. Even if you see results, stay calm. I am talking here about my own experience. Every time I became cocky, I saw a drop. It was not because of heaven punishing me, but rather because I lost focus and spent less time analyzing the fixture.

Many punters and online casino players know this story. When you play or bet and keep on losing, everything is fine and the operator is not making any problems. When talking to the support staff with some minor issues or questions you might even get the feeling these are the nicest people on Earth. But try to win (big or small)… Only then you will see the true colors. If you are betting with your country registered and licensed operator, you basically shouldn’t encounter any issues like those described below. But if you are betting in a sportsbook with a Curacao or other – rather exotic licence, get ready for some troubles. I am not saying that all of them are bastards but if you check some forums you will learn that being screwed by a bookie happens more often than one might think. Now the question is…

What to do when bookmaker is ghosting you and you can not withdraw your funds?

The following instructions also apply to the case when online casino is refusing to pay out, the only condition is that the casino also has a sportsbook – which most of them actually do have. Let’s call the operator who owes you money Crook-Bet to simplify the story.

You might not have realized that when trying to desperately get your money, Crook-Bet is still allowing you to bet. Operators like Crook-Bet (bookies or casinos) rely on the fact that when they ghost you long enough you will simply give up. This leaves you with 2 scenarios:

1. Your funds will be frozen on their account till your bitter end and Crook-Bet keeps your money
2. You keep on betting and lose it all and in this case again – Crook-Bet keeps you money

Looks like there is not a way out of this misery, but there is and it will only cost you about 1-3% of your funds. The right choice to go with the 1-3% is number 2. What? Yep you have to lose the funds and the faster you do it the better for you, but listen to the whole instructions.

Steps to follow to get your money back

Imagine it is 100 USD that you have stuck at the Crook-Bet’s account. Here are the steps to follow to get your money back.

Step 1. Pick a match with similar odds for the outcome. Can be a a football game, tennis or anything else. Important is that the strengths of the teams are similar. Odds 1.05 for a home win, 12.3 for a draw and 35.50 for away win will not do the job. Search for game with odds close to 2.6. for home win, 3.30 for a draw and 2.8 for away win.

Step 2. Open 2 more accounts at your local licensed bookmaker. Let’s say you are from the UK, and this gives you an option of hundreds of licensed bookmakers. Those are the ones who will get big penalties if they do anything unethical. After you picked the match, search for the licensed bookie that gives the highest odds. This is quite important, since betting with random odds vs betting with highest odds can reduce your loss from 12% to 1%. Also make sure they are legal in your country, so you do not have an extra problem.

And yes, you are not getting the whole 100% of your funds back. Accept losing at least 1%.

Step 3. Using our sure bet calculator, your job is now to spread the stakes in the way that you bet the whole 100 USD by Crook-Bet. You simply insert the odds into the fields and then you only increase or decrease the the bet amount in the last field till there is the 100 USD in the field “stakes” within the Crook bet line.

Here an concrete example

Imagine you have a football match and the odds are:

Licensed bookmaker 1 Home win: 2.00
Licensed bookmaker 2 Draw: 3.60
Crook-bet Away win: 4.20

Note: I could have chosen to place the draw or home win by Crook-bet and others bookies accordingly. This is up to you. Your job is simply guess the outcome that will not succeed and place that bet in Crook-bet.

Comparing the offer and choosing the bookies with highest odds we see that bookmakers profit in this case is 1.56% and that is for now acceptable.

Now go to the sure bet calculator, enter the odds and fool around with the stake amount. Simply start by entering 300. By Crook-Bet this shows that I have to deposit 70.31 but since I need this to be 100, I will increase and adjust the numbers till I get the 100 in the last line. This happens when the total deposit amount is 426.65. As you see in the following picture, I have to bet 209.99 on the home win by Licensed bookmaker 1 and 116.67 on a draw by the Licensed bookmaker 2.

Things to be aware of

1. Using the technique above, every time you lose by licensed bookmakers and win by Crook-bet you are losing the 1-3%. You have to go to the next round and try to lose by Crook-bet even more.
2. You might have some limits. Let’s say, you have not 100$ stuck by Crook-bet, but 10 000$. In that case you have to do it in more steps. You have to place the bets exactly as sure bet calculator shows you. If Crook bet lets you place e.g. 5000$, but any of the Licensed ones only 50$ then you have to open new accounts with other operators and bet the rest. Therefore you better start out small and slowly increase.

Asian handicap betting comes from Indonesia and reduces the possible number of match outcomes by eliminating the draw. This elimination aims to bring the odds as close as possible to 50:50 by putting a goal handicap on the favorite team. The use of Asian handicap betting evolved in time and recently things got more complicated. The complications originate mainly from the quarter and half handicaps explained below.

Asian handicap is quite popular when a clear underdog plays against a really strong team. The signs (-) and (+) go for the same result but are taken from a different angle.

• If we use (-), we take the favorites angle by subtracting the goal amount from his initial score
• If we use (+), we take the underdogs angle by adding the goal amount to his initial score

The following table explains the possible Asian handicap combinations of Match results and Bet results in the Premier League.

Asian Handicap Zero line explained

If you place a Asian Handicap 0 bet, you win when the team you bet on wins. In the case of a draw, you get your stake amount back and in the case of a loss, you indeed lost your stake. The zero by Asian Handicap is easy to understand, since the draw is excluded from the results and has not any effect on your money.

Asian Handicap Integer lines explained

Moving away from a zero, in many expert betting tips you might see handicaps such as -4, -3, -2, -1, 1, 2, 3, 4. If you see e.g. Manchester City -2 handicap, then the team starts 2 goals behind their opponent. If Manchester City wins with a difference of 2 goals, you get a stake refund. In other cases you simply win or lose following the simple math.

Asian Handicap quarter lines explained

+0.25, -0.25, +0.75, -0.75, +1.25, -1.25… As you look closer you really have to wrap your brain around this. Being low-focused by the quarter Asian handicap bet, you might mess up. The first challenge is to realize the signs “-” and “+”. If you look at the table, you might face 2 different outcomes since half loss is not the same as half win.

• In the case of half loss you lose half of your bet and get back the other half. Easy as that, no further necessity for betting odds calculator.
• In the case of half win, you lose half of the bet and the other half gets multiplied by the winning odds.

Further complication comes as we look at the difference between 0.25 and 0.75 and combine the plus and minus. Half win, half loss looks like a strange pattern and that means you really have to know what you are doing. Simply take a pen and paper and write down the handicap.

Asian Handicap half lines explained

If you were able to understand the quarter lines, you will have it easy to understand the half lines. The half lines are easier to cope with since there are only 2 possible outcomes. You only can win or lose. No stake refund no half win no half loss.

Spotting a value bet in Asian Handicap betting is not as easy as the listed bookmakers are not displaying their payout next to the betting market. We have to rely on the bookmaker’s margin calculator, but even the use of this tool is limited by the half win and stake refunds. We are really good at Champions League football predictions, with an above average performance.