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The risk within

There is a danger you carry within you – it is your head to be precise. Our craving for satisfaction is the biggest danger when it comes to sports betting or any other kind of gambling. Today we look at the dangers of risk together with non Gamstop betting sites who analysed this topic in detail.

…and this does not apply to gambling only. If you want to find success in sports betting, here are a few psychological goals you must follow, but let’s start with something surprising.

Of course, we all want to be happy! But did you know that feeling of being happy and satisfied tends you to accept higher risks? Yes, it’s a scientifically proven fact. A little bit of stress and tension is and the hit of dopamine is what the gamblers seek and winning gives you more of that increasing the danger. Winning will make you less cautious about your bets and increase the risk of rash decisions. What is the solution? Keep your happiness in check when you enter a gambling zone.

Blinking loss

Did you ever realize that you get something that looks like a reward even if you lose? Many slot machine games start making sounds and flash even if you are losing. This way the player loses, but still might get confused about what really happened. UKGC has been fighting this for several years and 2022 is set to be an end to the “blinking loss”.

Preconceived bias

This is a problem many football gamblers face. If you have a preconceived notion about any team or a match in general, you may ignore real evidence. While placing bets, you must be critical. It will help you to make the right analysis.
One of the most common things is to place a bet on the favourite team. Of course, you love them but that doesn’t guarantee their wins every time.

Instead, pay attention to gaming strategies, players, etc. to make an informed decision. Here is an example of what may go wrong during the match.

“Team A has experienced players and they are playing really well this season. But team B is my favourite team and they have won quite a few times before. Let me place a bet on team B”

This is where you may lose the game. It’s important to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of each of the teams. Then you can take a radical decision.

Adopt an agile approach

A cool head with logical questions makes you a successful gambler. So far we have discussed the flaws you should overcome. Now, it’s time to analyse your right approach.

It’s important to adopt a dejected and approved approach. Not sure what we are talking about? The following section will clarify your doubts.

Follow a logical thought process:

“Team A is full of experienced and celebrity players and team B has new and experimental ones. Though they both have a good chance to win, A may win over B due as they are more experienced. So I will bet on them”

This is a logical approach that takes the advantages and disadvantages of each team into account. Naturally, you will get a comprehensive overview and accumulate your thought process. This is the best strategy to adopt.

Way forward

We agree that a fair share of luck is involved in gambling. No matter how much you reason yourself and calculate the right move, you cannot control what’s happening right there on the field. But following the above-mentioned steps will help you to win even a few matches! That’s not bad, right? Don’t forget to share the article with your acquaintances if you find it useful. Good luck with your next game.

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Football Predictions Manual

Mathematical football predictions by Rowdie are not fixed-match information nor any other scams that can easily be found by over 90% of the “betting services”.

For that the most important thing is to understand how to use our football predictions. Also remember that knowledge is power and our betting academy will arm you with brain power you might need.

How do the predictions of Rowdie work? We earn money the same way as the bookies do for themselves. We base our football picks on mathematics and science. We compare the odds of a bookmaker with the fair odds calculated by our sophisticated – self learning algorithm. (As a reference we use the odds of bet365, that are displayed within each fixture)

In the predictions section you will only find fixtures where the odds of a bookmaker are at least 5% higher than fair odds. The difference between those two odds is called a value.

To see the full list of value bets and mathematical football picks please login or create a Rowdie account and prepay the access to premium membership for only €19.99 per month.

Another important thing is predictability of the league and the market. Retrospectively we verify the profitability of our football picks and the result are 4 categories – high, good, medium and poor accuracy. Just pay attention to the colors – after you subscribe you will know what I am talking about. The logic is the following: High predictability needs less value and poor predictability needs more value. E.g. I would be happy to place a bet on a football pick with high predictability and value of 13%, but not so happy placing the same bet if the predictability was poor.

Do you not see within a fixture a green highlighted percentage of a value? Example image below shows 21.68% and 61.85% (only visible to paying customers).

This can have 2 reasons:

  1. The odds of a bookie are too low
  2. The odds of a bookie are high enough, but our statistical verification did not show a satisfying profitability of the league and the market (e.g. with English Premier League we struggle to find a profitable formula for Home Over 3,5 goals market, while within the same league we are doing (mostly) great predicting the 3 way result – 1X2)

odds converted into probabilities

Understanding Rowdie is easy

…the following example will serve us to explain. Look at the following images of Dutch Eredivisie match details between Feyenoord and Utrecht then read the explanation below.

paid football predictions

Our algorithm calculated that the probability of Feyenord’s home win was 54.75%, the draw 22.12% and the away win of Utrecht was 23.12%. In the spot “Highest Value” we can see 61.85%.  The combination of numbers means that in 23.12% of the cases we will succeed and win the ticket. By betting e.g. 100 tickets (£1 per ticket) we will make on average £61.85. Please notice also another oportunity in this match – a 22.12% chance of a draw and the value is 21.68%, but is it worth it?

The ideal combination of numbers is a high value and high chance of success 

Let’s do a twist to the previous sentence and push it to an extreme. It makes not too much sense to bet on picks with low probability and low value. Would you bet on a win of an underdog with 0.05% chance of success and 10% value? 

Our recommendations

  1. Set your goal of how much you want to win per ticket. In our case it is £2 per ticket. Bet one match per ticket only!
  2. In the section Football Predictions you see the list of fixtures where we detected a value. Do not forget to click “More football predictions” at the bottom of the page.
  3. Click on each fixture you consider to bet on and look for the Green Highlighted Percentage we spoke about earlier. Make sure to be critical and skeptical. We recommend spending at least 5 minutes analyzing the fixture before betting for real – all statistics you need are available below predictions table. If you do spend those 5 minutes, ROI has a rising potential to over 20%.
  4. Let’s say you selected fixtures that you are about to bet on. First check if the bookmaker still has odds higher than the fair odds – they like to change them quite often. We only recommend to bet on odds between 1.5 – 5.00 since this range brings the highest profits (talking about decimal odds by the bookie)
  5. As an example of the mentioned £2 per ticket goal look at the table below. £2 are stable, changes are in columns Bookies odds and Bet Amount.

football predictions manual

The hard work is being done by Rowdie, your input in a form of critical thinking is crucial. Learn more about how to make money by betting.

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Do not bet on friendly fixtures (unless you know how)

We are good at math and our paid picks are doing great. To see the full list of value bets and mathematical football picks please login or create a Rowdie account and prepay the access to premium membership for only €19.99 per month. There are some leagues where we are doing great and there are leagues where we are… let’s say average. Only a handful leagues show really poor performance and that means we had to take a closer look. Please stay calm as we only show values in leagues and markets with a high predictability.

The benchmark

We are doing our best to bring the best results with our mathematical football predictions and we are proud to present our results. There is however one league that stands out. The group of friendly games in football where the math is simply not working.

We have been working hard over 2 years to fix that, but it is not possible. Friendly games have their own rules and their own math – a math without real mathematical laws. We have noticed so many crazy results and unexpected surprises that we ha to analyze the topic more deeply.

What is the reason for friendly games showing so many unexpected results?

There are more reasons and we have singled out the following main ones

Testing of new line-ups

What is a better place for testing new players, positions and strategies if not a friendly game? The results are simply irrelevant and coaches are taking the opportunity. Key players are not playing or are playing on a different spots – spots that are not natural to them. Key players are replaced by bench players and newbies, and this is all fine. This reason alone is good enough to screw up the football prediction math. There are 2 factors:

  • different lineups bring unexpected results
  • performance

Poor performance of the key players

Why should we expect a key player who earns millions to bring 100% performance during a friendly match? Every game holds a risk of a injury and the club officials together with the player know it. Can you imagine the headlines saying “Ronaldo injured in a friendly match”? This would jeopardize some positions.

Match fixing

You will most likely not find any signs of match fixing in the top European leagues. For that you have to go to lower leagues (maybe outside of Europe) and indeed friendly games. The reason for match fixing in friendly games is not so surprising. It is money. While the top leagues treat millions like peanuts, the poorer ones struggle to feed their families.

We can put it into numbers so fasten your seatbelts. 630 football players were chosen from different parts of Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece. All of them were active or former players and 25.9% claimed that they were a part of match fixing activities in more than 2 football fixtures.

Who was the master brain? It was discovered that some club officials like coaches and managers had a significant role to play in manipulating the football results in friendly games. Not surprisingly 18.7% of such approaches were made by the officials alone while only 14.93% of the approaches came from players participating in the fixtures. It was also revealed that the club officials had a lot to gain. Yes, the coaches, managers and other club officials were those benefitting from match fixing the most.

For those who are good at betting might be beneficial knowing even the poor predictions. Maybe to bet against them so we will come back to this. This article is about to be updated.

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How to make money in football betting?


Do you want to do betting for living? Many of us do! Do you do what it takes to do betting for living? I doubt it! …but let me set the benchmark. Do you know how much time do the professionals that create the odds work? On average it is 8 hours per person and day. Do you know how many of those professionals are by Betradar and other companies? Dozens, even hundreds. Now imagine. You have an army of highly skilled professionals working against you and the only thing you do when placing a bet is claim that you feel it in your bones. There are also other distortions, such as taking the shortcuts like fixed match information and other scams.

Q: And this is when Rowdie comes into the scene, right?

A: Kind of. The mathematical football predictions from Rowdie are operated by the most sophisticated self learning algorithms, but using it brainless will not get you the results you want.

Q: Why is that? You claim, that the predictions are retrospectively verified and you only display those with a high or good predictability.

A: Of course, but even at Betradar or other odds creators companies, there are people checking the results. Besides that, the odds are changing a few times per day. A week before the match might be the squad different than a few minutes before the match. Especially now, during the Covid period we see that the line ups are changing more frequently than before Covid. Lately I was waiting for UK football predictions for this week. I was used to see the odds earlier than 3 days before the game, but this time bookmakers had to wait for the WM qualifications to be finished. Was it because of waiting if any key player ends up Covid positive? I guess so, but sure I am not.

Q: Is the possible line up change the only reason for checking Rowdie’s mathematical football predictions?

A: It might be the main reason, but it is not the only one. I personally go through each predicted value bet, check the stats, and select only about 20%. Those 20% are the fixtures where the value is really obvious. While all the super real football pics give on average around 10%, selecting the cream of the cream gives a much higher value – up to 40%.

Q: Ok, but how much time do you spend analyzing one fixture.

A: It depends. Sometimes it takes seconds by saying “I don’t think this one should be on the list”, but when a fixture passes the initial filter it is no less than 15 minutes. And now we are getting to the point of this article, Betting is work and this work is not easy. It may not be a dirty job, it may not be a tough physical job but if you are not a born (or made) to love numbers, you will find it the hardest job in the world.

Q: I am not getting your point

A: Imagine spending hours, sitting and looking at numbers. Fixture by fixture. First the League, then the teams, then players. Imagine doing this for weeks, months or even years. You have to love it to be able to deal with it and if you so not love numbers my advice is do betting only as a hobby. What does it mean? Hobby costs money and therefore accept that you will not beat the bookies. How to beat the bookies? Betting is work and if you slack it, then you will be “fired”.

Q: Ok. I go through the football predictions and select the ones I believe in. Is there anything else I should do?

A: Sure. Do the predictions on your own. After selecting the fixture, try to forget the numbers, open statistics and do the same job like our algorithm. We have a great tool that helps you with the final calculation. You only feed it with ” numbers. Creating odds on your own gives you a great feeling of what is going on.

Q: How much is it?

A: To see the full list of value bets and mathematical football picks please login or create a Rowdie account and prepay the access to premium membership for only €19.99 per month.

Q: Any final Advice?

A: Indeed. Be skeptical! Don’t ever fall into the trap thinking that you are a good punter. Even if you see results, stay calm. I am talking here about my own experience. Every time I became cocky, I saw a drop. It was not because of heaven punishing me, but rather because I lost focus and spent less time analyzing the fixture.

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What to do when bookmaker or casino doesn’t want to pay

Many punters and online casino players know this story. When you play or bet and keep on losing, everything is fine and the operator is not making any problems. When talking to the support staff with some minor issues or questions you might even get the feeling these are the nicest people on Earth. But try to win (big or small)… Only then you will see the true colors. If you are betting with your country registered and licensed operator, you basically shouldn’t encounter any issues like those described below. But if you are betting in a sportsbook with a Curacao or other – rather exotic licence, get ready for some troubles. I am not saying that all of them are bastards but if you check some forums you will learn that being screwed by a bookie happens more often than one might think. Now the question is…

What to do when bookmaker is ghosting you and you can not withdraw your funds?

The following instructions also apply to the case when online casino is refusing to pay out, the only condition is that the casino also has a sportsbook – which most of them actually do have. Let’s call the operator who owes you money Crook-Bet to simplify the story.

You might not have realized that when trying to desperately get your money, Crook-Bet is still allowing you to bet. Operators like Crook-Bet (bookies or casinos) rely on the fact that when they ghost you long enough you will simply give up. This leaves you with 2 scenarios:

  1. Your funds will be frozen on their account till your bitter end and Crook-Bet keeps your money
  2. You keep on betting and lose it all and in this case again – Crook-Bet keeps you money

Looks like there is not a way out of this misery, but there is and it will only cost you about 1-3% of your funds. The right choice to go with the 1-3% is number 2. What? Yep you have to lose the funds and the faster you do it the better for you, but listen to the whole instructions.

Steps to follow to get your money back

Imagine it is 100 USD that you have stuck at the Crook-Bet’s account. Here are the steps to follow to get your money back.

Step 1. Pick a match with similar odds for the outcome. Can be a a football game, tennis or anything else. Important is that the strengths of the teams are similar. Odds 1.05 for a home win, 12.3 for a draw and 35.50 for away win will not do the job. Search for game with odds close to 2.6. for home win, 3.30 for a draw and 2.8 for away win.

Step 2. Open 2 more accounts at your local licensed bookmaker. Let’s say you are from the UK, and this gives you an option of hundreds of licensed bookmakers. Those are the ones who will get big penalties if they do anything unethical. After you picked the match, search for the licensed bookie that gives the highest odds. This is quite important, since betting with random odds vs betting with highest odds can reduce your loss from 12% to 1%. Also make sure they are legal in your country, so you do not have an extra problem.

And yes, you are not getting the whole 100% of your funds back. Accept losing at least 1%.

Step 3. Using our sure bet calculator, your job is now to spread the stakes in the way that you bet the whole 100 USD by Crook-Bet. You simply insert the odds into the fields and then you only increase or decrease the the bet amount in the last field till there is the 100 USD in the field “stakes” within the Crook bet line.

Here an concrete example

Imagine you have a football match and the odds are:

Licensed bookmaker 1 Home win: 2.00
Licensed bookmaker 2 Draw: 3.60
Crook-bet Away win: 4.20

Note: I could have chosen to place the draw or home win by Crook-bet and others bookies accordingly. This is up to you. Your job is simply guess the outcome that will not succeed and place that bet in Crook-bet.

Comparing the offer and choosing the bookies with highest odds we see that bookmakers profit in this case is 1.56% and that is for now acceptable.

Now go to the sure bet calculator, enter the odds and fool around with the stake amount. Simply start by entering 300. By Crook-Bet this shows that I have to deposit 70.31 but since I need this to be 100, I will increase and adjust the numbers till I get the 100 in the last line. This happens when the total deposit amount is 426.65. As you see in the following picture, I have to bet 209.99 on the home win by Licensed bookmaker 1 and 116.67 on a draw by the Licensed bookmaker 2.

sure bet calculator


Things to be aware of

  1. Using the technique above, every time you lose by licensed bookmakers and win by Crook-bet you are losing the 1-3%. You have to go to the next round and try to lose by Crook-bet even more.
  2. You might have some limits. Let’s say, you have not 100$ stuck by Crook-bet, but 10 000$. In that case you have to do it in more steps. You have to place the bets exactly as sure bet calculator shows you. If Crook bet lets you place e.g. 5000$, but any of the Licensed ones only 50$ then you have to open new accounts with other operators and bet the rest. Therefore you better start out small and slowly increase.
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What is Cashout in betting?

It was the year 2014 when I first noticed the cashout button next to my betting slips. It was bet365, but pioneers could have been some other bookies. Before going any further let us look at the definition.

The definition of cashout in betting

This might sound a little too scientific so let us look at a concrete example. Let’s say you placed a combo ticket with 7 fixtures –  bet amount was 10£, total odds 154.3 and possible win 1 543£. Imagine 5 of them are successful, and that means guessing 2 more and you are winning the full amount. With the 5 already “home”, you would be winning… let’s say 835£. This is indeed a decent amount, but all that could be gone if any of the remaining positions goes wrong. On the other hand, there is a chance to get almost a double if you wait – and get lucky indeed.

Suddenly you see a big temptation – a button saying “Cashout” – and get let’s say 530£ immediately.

Should I use the cashout option?

This is a tough question to answer. Many times I used it and was happy. Many times I didn’t use it and was unhappy. I will answer the question from 2 perspectives. As a mathematician I say Do not cashout. The probabilities are not playing to your favor. Bookmakers are having a decent market margin on this one. As a part of the best betting strategy, you are better of not taking it. This is what the theory has to say.


You have 100 opportunities to win 15 000£ with success probability 80% or cashing out for 9 000£. In the first case you would be expected making after those 100 opportunities in average 1 200 000£. In the case o a cashout only 900 000£. The math is clear, but let’s shift the perspective from math to a human point of view.

How many times per life do you get a chance of being close to winning 15 000£? Hundred times? I doubt it. You would be lucky to be 5 times in that position. I personally would cash out.

Which bookmakers offer cashout

In the case you want to know which bookmakers offer cashout and which don’t, there is a simple answer. Most of them, but not all of them all the fixtures. There is a hidden pattern I am not able to identify. Most of the times all bookies offer cashout on the English Premier League, but sometimes they don’t. The cashout button usually appears out of nowhere, but sometimes it doesn’t. Sometimes they promote cashout – in that case is the cashout option always available.

Make sure to learn more about the sportsbook theory in our online betting academy. Most of the punters lose their stakes because they have no slightest idea what they are doing. From the paid football predictions sites out there we know is Rowdie offering the most accurate results. What is going on in sports betting today? To embrace the power of mathematics, football predictions today give you the list of todays matches together with the forebets.

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Sure bet calculator

Please read the simple sure bet calculator manual before you go any further. You also should answer an important question first: Are sure bets a reliable betting tool? The answer might surprise you.

Surebet calculator – calculate stakes

Type of Event:

Enter below all the odds, and then click ‘Calculate’.

Outcome Odds Stakes Winnings

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Backing favourites in football – Can you win money?

There is a difference between backing a favourite team and a clear match. Sometimes, if you understand football, you simply know that there will be no surprise and all points will be taken by the top dog – here the math predictions has not really power and you can place your bet. Other time there might be a strong team (favourite team) playing against a team with unknown potential (but still potential) and this makes you follow the betting crowd.

How to win money at betting on a top dog?

You can bet on the top dog and succeed 5 times in the row thinking this might be the right way to make profit in sports betting. The odds are normally below 1.3 – not rarely below 1.1. Putting this into numbers of a betting chance and probability we get the following results. On the fair odds market the chances of 1.3 odds are 76.9%, but bookies will offer you most likely odds around 1,1 (90,9%). The high chance of winning gives you an illusion of a great betting strategy.

Obviously there is a huge shift in the chances and you are on the wrong end. With the mentioned fair odds chance of 76.9% and bookmakers odds 1.1 you will win bets many times, but by betting you will only win 10p netto. Doing the same bet 10 times, you will statistically lose at least 2 times. So how to win in football betting?

Putting this into a win/loss relationship:

  • Betting 10 matches with the same conditions. 1£ on each match.
  • 8 wins = 8 x 10p = 80p win
  • 2 loses = 2 x 1£ = 2£ loss
  • In summary you have with the optimistic scenario only 2£ – 80p = 1.2£ loss

This is a trap and if you keep on trying to make money by betting on favourites or top dogs, you will not be profitable in the long term. You have to choose a different soccer betting strategy.

What else is not working by betting on the top dog?

Let’s say you are expecting a surprise. Sure it happens, but mostly the surprise is a draw and bookies know that. If you are searching for paid value bets, you will not find them in a draw either. Option might be double chance value bet, but in this case it is most likely not available or the odds are way too low. The value is usually pushed all the way to the win of an underdog, but this is not really the way either since the chances of success are normally below 10%. What is the moral coming out of this?

What is working by betting on the top dog?

Search for the value by number of goals market. Punters usually expect besides the win of the top dog a clear win of the top dog and this may not be the case. Many times the favourite team struggles to score a goal. How come? Since the under dog expects the big pressure, their strategy will be defense.

With the crowds betting big on a high win of the top team, the odds might be pushed to your favour. Simply put: Check all the betting values with our paid betting tips and make sure to take your time. Betting on football predictions for tomorrow without looking deeply on each fixture is not a great option. You never know, but there might be some key player suffering some minor injury.

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Sports Betting Myths

Critical thinking is one of the most important features when it comes to sports betting. World is full of bullshit and your job is to recognize it. Just remember how many times you saw any so-called experts coming out with predictions about the stock market, elections, politics or match result. The next thing we see is the same people explaining the reasons why the outcomes were different than predictions without – all this without a glimpse of humility. In the following text I will describe some of the myths I got in contact with.

Fixed match information

First of all. If you have information that could make you fortune, why would you sell that for peanuts? Meditate simply on this for a while and try to find a reason! Knowing how a game ends, you can open a betting account by hundreds of bookmakers, bet a decent unsuspicious amount and enjoy a beautiful year full of sex, drugs and any kind of music. The other option is to put a lot of effort in spamming, advertising and hope for some greedy internet dummy biting the hook. Does it make sense?

Martingale system by sports betting

The  Martingale betting system is applied from roulette, where you bet on red or black. The philosophy is to double your bet every time you lose. This actually is not complete nonsense but let’s look at the chance you will end up broke by doing it over a long term period. Let us consider the odds 2.0 and 50% chance of winning to make it simple. In the following table you see the chance of getting from a bet of 1 GBP to sick money.

Bet number Odds Bet amount Brutto win Netto win Loss amount total Chance
1 2.0 1 2 1 1 0,5
2 2.0 2 4 1 3 0,25
3 2.0 4 8 1 7 0,125
4 2.0 8 16 1 15 0,0625
5 2.0 16 32 1 31 0,0312
6 2.0 32 64 1 63 0,0156
7 2.0 64 128 1 127 0,0078

Keep in mind, the case is simplified to communicate my point easily. If the chance was 50%, the odds would be around 1,9 and that would push the bet amounts significantly higher.

The last column is actually the most important one. In the third step there is a 12,5% chance that with probability of the match result being 50% you will get up to here. This means that in more than one out of 10 bets like this one you get here. Doing this long term you will for sure come even further. Now look at step number 7. You have to bet 64 GBP to actually gain the 1 pound netto. Is it worth it? I doubt it.

This is a painful reminder for my friend betting on Detroit Red Wings back in the 2007/2008 season. They were rocking the scene and as we know the odds in NHL are due to unpredictable results relatively equal. It is really hard to say who the favourite of the game is.

He started out big with a series of 4 wins in a row. Then it started – 3 times they lost and then some draws and wins in overtime. He started to be “slightly nervous” and stopped after a round number 10 or so. It took 4 more games for the Red Wings to win in regular time. He however ended up losing thousands.

Betting experts selling tips

Most of us have noticed Facebook pages with betting experts selling tips. Now, let’s not deny there are really good punters out there with decent results. I know some of them in person. They are however too busy doing their own business, and not really willing to waste their precious time to earn peanuts. And not just that. When I directly asked them if they were willing to sell their advice about what to bet on next, all of them refused. All of them had a kind of healthy humility and admitted “You never know how the end result is going to be”. They were indeed eager to talk about what to bet next. I saw the extreme passion about sports betting and sometimes it looked like any other topic than betting was too boring to them.

What they were never willing to put up with were the emotions of the ones who don’t have a clue about sports betting. They had enough experience to know that there is no guarantee and even 10 matches in a row can go wrong. They did not want to feel responsibility for the person losing money. Once again, being a successful bettor is much less about knowing who is going to win and much more about sportsbook strategy and betting behaviour. Losing is simply part of the betting business.

On the other hand, even on our page you can follow the betting experts and copy their bets (to be implemented soon), but this is not for complete beginners. You can look at their betting statistics and details and make your own judgement. But on an anonymous Facebook page, how can you be sure you are watching and expert?

Now remember the moral of this betting myth:

There are guarantees in betting

I remember last time I lost big. It was actually not sports but politics. I was sure as one can ever be that Donald Trump will not get more votes than Hillary Clinton. And I was right. She received about 2% extra votes, but Trump still became the president and I lost. I made a huge mistake by not knowing the election system and paid hard for that. The odds were actually fantastic, and I did consider it as a clear value bet. It was only slightly strange to me, that it was so clear and so easy.

Well, it wasn’t as I learned to know the hard way. I failed in the psychology of sports betting – especially the part where you ask a correct question but answer a wrong one. The question in this case was clear “Who will be the president”. I gave an answer “Donald Trump will get more votes”. This is clearly an answer to a different question. Now I can excuse my naivety by saying “I did not know”. Well, truth. But I had to pay for that anyways. How unfair!

Besides that there are many surprises in sports betting, even on the daily basis. At the beginning the match begins with 0-0 and shit happens. There are no guarantees in sports! Each underdog can beat any team! Make sure to follow the football betting tips or value bets for tomorrow of Rowdie and combine them with critical thinking. Only then you can answer the question how to succeed in football betting.

State run betting monopoly as a guarantee

I remember the gambling Eldorado till 2012, when the operators were not controlled by any local governments. There was not a real protection for the vulnerable ones, self exclusion programs did not work at all and no real fines were given for breaking the rules. Then in many countries the local governments closed the betting market and operated the business under a state owned monopoly. As we know, with no competition, there is a tendency to predatory behaviour and it really happened. Sadly, the punters were many times ribbed off more than before.

Monopolies many times applied a fee on betting, which was up to 6% from the stake amount. So yes. If you were about to bet 100 with odds 1,10 you ended up winning only 104 since 60% of your winnings were taken by the state. Therefore were punters motivated to bet less on combo tickets. (This fee is still a practice in some East European countries when betting offline.)

The pressure to cut the state run gambling monopoly grew realy big, so the state run gambling monopolies became the past mostly all over the world. The experience so far showed it was a really good decision – most profitable for the bettors.

So what is the moral of this article? I would say it all comes down to the following sentence. Be critical! And that counts for everything – even this website. I did my best to bring you the most valuable betting content, but I have my limits too. I could have made some math mistakes, logical mistakes or I could be just a guy who is writing bullshit just to sell advert space. I am glad you read what I wrote over here, but it is your responsibility to build your own opinion or come with your own strategies. You never know, maybe hiring an Oracle might work better.

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Asian Handicap explained

Asian handicap betting comes from Indonesia and reduces the possible number of match outcomes by eliminating the draw. This elimination aims to bring the odds as close as possible to 50:50 by putting a goal handicap on the favorite team. The use of Asian handicap betting evolved in time and recently things got more complicated. The complications originate mainly from the quarter and half handicaps explained below.

Asian handicap is quite popular when a clear underdog plays against a really strong team. The signs (-) and (+) go for the same result but are taken from a different angle.

  • If we use (-), we take the favorites angle by subtracting the goal amount from his initial score
  • If we use (+), we take the underdogs angle by adding the goal amount to his initial score

The following table explains the possible Asian handicap combinations of Match results and Bet results in the Premier League.

Handicap Match Result Bet Result Handicap Match Result Bet Result
0 Win Win 0 Win Win
Draw Stake refund Draw Stake refund
Lose Loss Lose Loss
-0,25 Win Win 0,25 Win Win
Draw Half loss Draw Half win
Lose Loss Lose Loss
-0,50 Win Win 0,50 Win Win
Draw Loss Draw Win
Lose Loss Lose Loss
-0,75 Win by 2+ Win 0,75 Win Win
Win by 1 Half win Draw Win
Draw Loss Lose by 1 Half Loss
Lose Loss Lose by 2+ Loss
-1 Win by 2+ Win 1 Win Win
Win by 1 Stake refund Draw Win
Draw Loss Lose by 1 Stake refund
Lose Loss Lose by 2+ Loss
-1,25 Win by 2+ Win 1,25 Win Win
Win by 1 Half Loss Draw Win
Draw Loss Lose by 1 Half win
Lose Loss Lose by 2+ Loss
-1,50 Win by 2+ Win 1,50 Win Win
Win by 1 Loss Draw Win
Draw Loss Lose by 1 Win
Lose Loss Lose by 2+ Loss
-1,75 Win by 3+ Win 1,75 Win Win
Win by 2 Half win Draw Win
Win by 1 Loss Lose by 1 Win
Draw Loss Lose by 2 Half Loss
Lose Loss Lose by 3+ Loss
-2 Win by 3+ Win 2 Win Win
Win by 2 Stake refund Draw Win
Win by 1 Loss Lose by 1 Win
Draw Loss Lose by 2 Stake refund
Lose Loss Lose by 3+ Loss

Asian Handicap Zero line explained

If you place a Asian Handicap 0 bet, you win when the team you bet on wins. In the case of a draw, you get your stake amount back and in the case of a loss, you indeed lost your stake. The zero by Asian Handicap is easy to understand, since the draw is excluded from the results and has not any effect on your money.

Asian Handicap Integer lines explained

Moving away from a zero, in many expert betting tips you might see handicaps such as -4, -3, -2, -1, 1, 2, 3, 4. If you see e.g. Manchester City -2 handicap, then the team starts 2 goals behind their opponent. If Manchester City wins with a difference of 2 goals, you get a stake refund. In other cases you simply win or lose following the simple math.

Asian Handicap quarter lines explained

+0.25, -0.25, +0.75, -0.75, +1.25, -1.25… As you look closer you really have to wrap your brain around this. Being low-focused by the quarter Asian handicap bet, you might mess up. The first challenge is to realize the signs “-” and “+”. If you look at the table, you might face 2 different outcomes since half loss is not the same as half win.

  • In the case of half loss you lose half of your bet and get back the other half. Easy as that, no further necessity for betting odds calculator.
  • In the case of half win, you lose half of the bet and the other half gets multiplied by the winning odds.

Further complication comes as we look at the difference between 0.25 and 0.75 and combine the plus and minus. Half win, half loss looks like a strange pattern and that means you really have to know what you are doing. Simply take a pen and paper and write down the handicap.

Asian Handicap half lines explained

If you were able to understand the quarter lines, you will have it easy to understand the half lines. The half lines are easier to cope with since there are only 2 possible outcomes. You only can win or lose. No stake refund no half win no half loss.

Spotting a value bet in Asian Handicap betting is not as easy as the listed bookmakers are not displaying their payout next to the betting market. We have to rely on the bookmaker’s margin calculator, but even the use of this tool is limited by the half win and stake refunds. We are really good at Champions League football predictions, with an above average performance.