Rowdie: Mathematical football predictions and betting tips

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Football betting strategy

Football betting strategy

Creating a football betting strategy is not the first step you should take if you want to be successful in sports betting. We have created a sports betting guide that should be taken into account before creating the betting strategy. You should follow 4 simple steps before you bet for real.

First please take 30 seconds to watch the following video to find out What is a bad betting strategy.


Creating Betting strategy step by step

Step Zero – avoid mistakes by setting the right data frame

The initial step is about considering the initial data. You can have a great betting model, but feeding a great model with false data will produce false outcomes.

  • National leagues require a different approach than the International leagues, Championships or World Cups. With national leagues you have more data supporting your statistics and football prognosis model, while the remaining others are usually less supportive.
  • Betting on friendly matches or pre-season games is different. Coaches are testing players, squads and much more. Players are not playing to their full potential to not get injured. In our football predictions we are displaying an important field called “League predictability”. Make sure to pay attention to it.

Step 1 – identify the value

Finding the difference between the odds given by a bookie and the real probability is the key to success in sports betting. Otto Berger as the owner of one of the Eastern European sports betting giants in one interview stressed that they are doing their best to identify the robots doing the betting and cut them off.

There are 3 tools we at Rowdie are providing and all of them use the mathematical implementation of prediction theory in football.

  1. Our mathematical football prediction algorithm is generating the data you can use to bet like a machine. We evaluate the probabilities of a given match using machine learning and statistical methods on our data.
  2. Our football odds creator for the more experienced bettors is giving full control over the prediction process to discover even more value.
  3. Value bets based on historical odds data and market trends. We are comparing there the average odds for a given match and selecting the odds, which are way too high.

Please take your time to study the explanation of value in sports betting. Now however please go to the next step as it is smart to understand the whole process of the betting strategy.

Step 2 – identify more values

After you find a value in one match, go and find more of them. The more you do it the less time-consuming it gets. After you analyzed 100 fixtures, you might have spotted 10 – 30 value bets. Do not only focus on the 3 way result, since a decent value can be found in other markets such as double chance, final score, over/under 2.5 goals, half time result or Asian handicap. Please look below at our example where we compare the probabilities calculated by us and those provided by the bookmaker.

Step number 3 – Bet the right amount

After you become skillful in discovering football betting tips for tonight, you will get to the point where you get to think about the stake. Should you increase the bet with each lost ticket? Should you bet more on games with lower odds and less on the higher ones? The answer is much less trivial than it appears at first sight. Please look at stake strategies to get your answers.

Example of sports betting strategy

Please consider this strategy only as an example. Make sure to know the theory before you create your own betting strategy.

We picked 15 matches where we discovered the value bet. The value was calculated using our expected value bet calculator.

Match Odds Type Odds offered by bookie Odds calculated by me Value
Sturm Graz (Am) – Vocklamarkt Home win 2.03 1.83 10.9%
Stadl Paura – Allerheiligen Draw 7.44 6.1 22%
Lendorf – Volkermarkt Draw 3.60 3.1 16.1%
Hammarby – Ostersunds Home win 1.5 1.3 15.4%
Inverness – Dundee Utd Away win 2.36 1.9 24.2%
Annan – Clyde Draw 3.25 3.0 8.3%
Everton FCFulham FC Home win 2.35 1.9 23.7%
Liverpool FCNewcastle United Draw 3.8 3.2 18.8%
WSC Wels – AC Wolfsberger (Am) Home win 2.2 1.8 22.2%
Manchester UnitedFC Chelsea Away win 2.45 2.12 15.6%
Kalsdorf – Wels Home win 1.3 1.13 15%
Deutschlandsberger – SC Weiz Draw 3.7 3.2 15.6%
Botafogo PB – Santa Cruz Draw 3.83 3.4 12.6%
Stuttgart U19 – Wolfsburg U19 Home win 2.5 2.1 19%
SilkeborgBrondby Home win 3.1 2.6 19.2%

Using our football forebets, value bets and/or odds creator we identified a difference between the odds offered by a bookie and the odds predicted by us. The higher the difference, the better for us. The value we defined as following:

Value = (Bookies odds / Our calculated odds) – 1

For the case of the match Silkeborg – Viborg is the Value =  (3.1 / 2.6) – 1 = 19.2%.

Warning: Make sure the odds have not changed meanwhile – meaning the time between finding a value and real betting. That is you should bet straight ahead as you spot the value.

Now, we add additional columns to our table, wait as the matches will end and calculate the profit/loss. To make it look simple we bet the same amount on each match for educational reasons. We advise you to go with a different stake strategy in real betting.

Match Odds Type Odds offered by bookie Odds calculated by me Value Bet amount Result Win amount
Sturm Graz  – Austria Vienna Home win 2.03 1.83 0.11 £10 £20.3
Stadl Paura – Allerheiligen Draw 7.44 6.1 0.22 £10 0
Lendorf – Volkermarkt Draw 3.60 3.1 0.16 £10 £36
Hammarby – Ostersunds Home win 1.5 1.3 0.15 £10 £15
Inverness – Dundee Utd Away win 2.36 1.9 0.24 £10 £23.6
Annan – Clyde Draw 3.25 3.0 0.08 £10 0
Almere City – Cambuur Home win 2.35 1.9 0.24 £10 0
St. Gilloise – Kortrijk Draw 3.8 3.2 0.19 £10 0
WSC Wels – AC Wolfsberger (Am) Home win 2.2 1.8 0.22 £10 £22
Bad Gleichenberg – Gleisdorf Away win 2.45 2.12 0.16 £10 0
Atletico MadridGranada CF Home win 1.3 1.13 0.15 £10 £13
Real MadridFC Barcelona Draw 3.7 3.2 0.16 £10 0
NantesTolouse Draw 3.83 3.4 0.13 £10 £38.3
PSGLorient Home win 2.5 2.1 0.19 £10 0
Bayer LeverkusenLeipzig Home win 3.1 2.6 0.19 £10 0
Total £150 £168.2

Our netto win is £18.2, which is 12,1% (We count it as a percentage from the bet amount. 18.2/150 x 100). This is indeed a great result. If you are getting over 5% in the long term, you can be happy. In this case we can say that the betting prediction model we created has potential.

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