Football League Predictability
The goal of paid mathematical football predictions is to evaluate the probabilities of a football match using a sophisticated self learning and statistical methods on the historical football data. The service is accessible to paying members. To see the full list of value bets and mathematical football picks please login or create a Rowdie account and prepay the access to premium membership for only €19.99 per month.
To evaluate the performance and results, the football predictions are being displayed with the extremely important league predictability feature. It is a set of factors that measure the quality and the predictive power of the algorithm.
Now we give you a little taste of the math behind the Rowdie’s football predictions.
All football predictions, value bets and probabilities are available as early as 3 weeks before the match starts. Today football prediction just like other betting tools are being updated between 1:30-2:00am
Hit ratio: Number of times the model predicts the right outcome (1, X, 2) over the last 100 matches of the league. The closer to 1,00 the better. The random prediction of a Home win / Draw / Away win has a hit ratio of 0.33 = 1/3 chance.
Log loss: Average log loss over the last 100 matches of the football league. Logarithmic loss measures the performance of a classification model where the prediction input is a probability value between 0 and 1. The goal of the machine learning models is to minimize this value. A perfect model would have a log loss of 0. This is measuring the quality of the predicted outcome probabilities. Here, the quality is considered as good when it is below -1.02 and high when it is below -0.98. The random prediction has a log loss of -1.09. So any log loss below -1.07 will be considered as poor predictability. Please read the full theory of log loss to explore the mathematical background.
Football league predictability: Numbers are sometimes hard to read and we have a solution for that. There are 4 possible outcomes that we labeled simply as poor, medium, good or high predictability. We recommend you to use today’s football predictions or football predictions for tomorrow since we only highlight the high ones – you can see them, with the highlighted green. There is however a use for the other ones too, but just for the advanced punters.
Predictive power of the algorithm: The results can go up or down and even stay the same. It might be important to know how the algorithm performs in time. The predictive power tells you if the log loss has been increased since the last 30 matches. As mentioned it can be up, down or remain unchanged. When the predictive power is up, the league is becoming more predictable and that is some good news for the punters.
Our predictions show decent performance
In contradiction to other predictions, betting tips and value bet providers, we decided to be very transparent in the performance and win rate of our Predictions and Value Bets.
Let’s take a look at the Match Predictions: To prove our transparency and quality of our Prediction Algorithm, we included the Predictions Performance per League into each football league information. And it is directly available for you! The Hit Ratio will show you the success percentage of our football predictions of the last 100 matches of the football league.
Without any prediction model, for 1X2 Predictions, 3 outcomes are possible, corresponding with a Hit Ratio of 33% for each possible outcome.
A few Leagues with an extremely high Hit Ratio in our Model are:
- Austrian Bundesliga – 68%*
- English Premier League – 66%
- Champions League – 64%
- Major League Soccer – 59%
*(..) Calculated Hit Ratio based on Double Chance in January 2020
When we analyze the performance of the Value Bet data, we also have some great figures to show. If you follow our Stake Model to control your risk and place the Value Bets at the different Bookmakers, it will result in the following profitable football betting record, based on the start of this Season. Check the evaluated results for each day.
Be aware, Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results!