How do you know you have a great betting strategy?
Let’s say you found a value and placed a bet. Let’s say the decimal odds were 4.55 and the ticket was winning. And now let’s say you found a value in another match with odds 1.8 and you lost on that ticket.
What does the result of those 2 tickets tell you? Does it tell you, that in the first case you were right about the value and in the second you were wrong? The answer is “the 2 games tell you absolutely nothing”. You have to have more than 2 matches to say if the football betting strategy is good or bad.
So how many tickets do you have to place to know if the betting strategy is valid or not? It all depends how perfect you want to have it.
- If a 95% confidence level and 5% margin error perfection is enough, then 385 matches is what you need.
- If a 98% confidence level and 4% margin error perfection feels better, then 849 matches is what you need.
Now I can feel your inner despair growing. Searching for a great betting strategy with hundreds of matches just to find out that it is crap is not a smart thing to do. So how can you test it?
Good news is we have some decent results. In July 2019 we started calculating the football predictions from data scientists and performance ratio shows an incredible growth over the past months, meaning the self-learning algorithm is doing great. Make sure to focus on the leagues with high of good predictability.
The same successful scenario we see with our paid value bets, where we compare the historical odds with those offered recently. The value bets we evaluate daily, so you can check how we did day by day. Please note the 2 mentioned features are completely independent.