Football accumulators (or parlays) are one of the most popular bet types among punters due to their potential for high returns from a small stake. The idea of stringing together several match outcomes for a big payout is undeniably attractive. But there’s a reason why most bettors lose on accumulators—the combined probability of winning is much lower than it seems.
In this article, we’ll break down why accumulators are often a bad betting strategy and how they exploit common mathematical misconceptions, ultimately favoring the bookmaker more than the punter.
How Accumulators Work
Multiplying Odds, Not Chances
In an accumulator, you combine two or more bets into a single wager, with the condition that all selections must win for the bet to payout. While the odds of each individual outcome are multiplied together, so too are the risks. This multiplication process is where the accumulator becomes problematic for bettors.
Let’s take an example:
- You choose three teams to win:
- Team A at 1.50
- Team B at 2.00
- Team C at 1.80
The combined odds for these selections would be:
1.50×2.00×1.80=5.401.50 \times 2.00 \times 1.80 = 5.40
At first glance, these odds look enticing—a €10 bet could return €54. But the real issue lies in understanding the cumulative probability of all outcomes happening together.
Understanding the Combined Probability of Accumulators
The key factor that trips up most punters is that while the odds might seem appealing, the true probability of winning an accumulator is much lower than the individual probabilities of each bet.
The probability of winning an accumulator is the product of the probabilities of each individual outcome, not the sum. So, for the above example, let’s calculate the implied probabilities for each team:
- Team A at 1.50: 66.67% chance of winning
- Team B at 2.00: 50% chance of winning
- Team C at 1.80: 55.56% chance of winning
To find the probability of all three teams winning, you multiply these probabilities together:
0.6667×0.50×0.5556=0.1850.6667 \times 0.50 \times 0.5556 = 0.185
So, the actual probability of winning this accumulator is just 18.5%, even though the potential payout might suggest otherwise. This means there’s an 81.5% chance you’ll lose the bet.
Accumulators Exploit the Gambler’s Desire for High Rewards
The allure of high odds and big payouts is what makes accumulators so popular, but this appeal is often deceptive. Accumulators play on the psychological principle known as the “big win fallacy”—the idea that a life-changing payout is just around the corner. Bettors often overlook the extremely low probability of winning in favor of imagining what they’ll do with the winnings.
Bookmakers know this, which is why they heavily promote accumulators and offer special bonuses to encourage them. For every winning accumulator, hundreds (or thousands) of losing bets have covered the payouts.
The Margin Problem: Why Bookmakers Love Accumulators
Another issue with accumulators is the bookmaker’s margin (overround). Bookmakers build a margin into every individual bet to ensure profitability. When you combine bets into an accumulator, you’re not only multiplying the odds but also the bookmaker’s margin. The more legs you add to an accumulator, the more difficult it becomes to beat the house.
For example, if each individual bet carries a margin of 5%, the margin compounds across your selections, further reducing your long-term chances of profitability. This is why bookmakers profit consistently from accumulators—they get to collect multiple margins within a single bet.
Why Fewer Selections Aren’t Much Better
Some bettors believe that limiting the number of selections in an accumulator will make it easier to win. While it’s true that a three-leg accumulator is mathematically more likely to win than a ten-leg accumulator, the problem of compounding risk remains. Even with three selections, your chances of winning are far lower than they appear.
For instance, with three selections, each with a 70% chance of winning, the combined probability is:
0.70×0.70×0.70=0.3430.70 \times 0.70 \times 0.70 = 0.343
This means you have only a 34.3% chance of winning, despite backing three relatively strong teams. You’re still more likely to lose than to win, but the potential payout makes it feel like the risk is worth it—when mathematically, it’s not.
What’s the Alternative?
Instead of falling for the false appeal of accumulators, bettors who want to maximize their chances of long-term success should focus on single bets with positive value. While single bets don’t offer the eye-catching returns of accumulators, they give you a much better chance of making consistent profits in betting over time.
The strategy of value betting—finding bets where the implied probability is lower than the actual chance of the outcome occurring—can help you beat the bookmaker’s margin. With value betting, you might only win 55-60% of your bets, but with disciplined bankroll management and sound probability assessment, you can steadily build your profits over the long run.
Never bet accumulators
Football accumulators are popular because they promise big returns from small stakes. However, the false appeal of accumulators lies in the way they multiply risk while simultaneously diminishing your chances of winning. The combined probability of all outcomes happening is often much lower than bettors realize, and the bookmaker’s margin compounds with every added selection.
If you want to improve your football betting results, steer clear of accumulators and focus on single bets where you can find true value. While it may seem less exciting in the short term, this approach significantly increases your chances of long-term profitability.
